[Book] The Illusion that Others Share My Taste

The concept of 'false consensus effect' was interesting.

"Basically, people believe that others also have tastes

similar to their own."

In the question of what percentage of students in this classroom have iPhones,

most of the students who used iPhones answered that most students have them,

while students who didn't use iPhones answered that iPhone usage was exceptional.

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And this theory is extended to the concept of baseball

and applied to scouts.

When falling in love with a particular player, they are 'convinced' that other teams feel the same way.

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In reality, the probability of a player drafted earlier achieving better results than a player drafted later is only 52 percent.

This part about baseball was very interesting.

I don't know much about the draft, but I have a general idea of what it is.

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Players picked in the first round are considered to be incredibly promising,

but their actual performance after making their professional debut

was quite different from what I expected.

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I've only learned about baseball through 'Choi Gang Baseball',

and I thought that the young players who did well there

would dominate the pros, but

I realized this year that the professional world is even more harsh.

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I've also seen cases where players drafted later achieved better results than those drafted earlier.

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At that moment, I felt that 'certainty' in a choice can be dangerous.

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When I'm certain about 'something',

I don't need to overvalue it compared to the alternatives.

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Because it's something I unconsciously chose,

I tend to overestimate it.

In crucial moments of decision-making,

I should remember this effect

and refrain from betting too heavily.

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